Over the recent weeks Barack Obama has gained a substantial lead over John McCain that some observers believed to signal the end of the Republican candidate. Current polls, however, show that McCain trails Obama by 5.2%, a drop from the almost 7% lead Obama has held in recent weeks. But as any good observer of politics will tell you, the national polls mean very little since it is the individual states who are responsible for the electoral college and thus the President of the United States.
Yet, certain battleground states have demonstrated a similar example as the national polls. In the most recent weeks and days, Obama has improved his lead on McCain or gained the lead. As recent as October 12, Obama held a 5% lead on McCain in Florida according to the Foxnews/Rassmussen poll. Then on October 16, the SurveyUSA poll shows that in the same state McCain had a 2% lead on Obama. The Real Clear Politics people combined all the polls from the earliest on October 12 to the October 16 poll to show Obama has only a 3.2% lead on his opponent. In Ohio, another key battleground state, Obama has been shown to hold a 9% point lead on McCain by the Suffolk poll (taken 10/17). However, on 10/16 NBC/Mason-Dixon showed that McCain has a 2% point lead on Obama. Real Clear Politics averaged all the polls in Ohio to a 3.3% point lead for Obama. These are just two examples that the polls are tricky and never truly accurate. What matters in these polls is who is called, and where in a given state they are taken. For example, in Ohio the Suffolk poll might have been taken in a more liberal area while the NBC/Mason-Dixon poll might have been done in a more conservative area. What can be shown, however, is that McCain has been regaining lost ground that was given up when the economy began to fall. Obama’s attack on Joe the Plumber hasn’t helped much either, and the McCain Campaign’s focus on Obama’s policies have shown holes in the Democrat’s plans. The new charge that Obama’s plan is nothing short of socialism has also brought Americans back to their senses and have seen a rise in McCain support as a result.
Either way, with election day closing in ever so quickly and early voting beginning today (at least in Texas), we are starting to see things turn differently than expected. It is still most believed, at least by this author, that come November 4 when most Americans will do their voting, the core base of the Obama supporters will be no where in sight. Obama’s two biggest groups of supporters are young people and blacks, neither have are well known for voting. The traditional base of the Democratic party, older white middle class people, are typically more conservative than the new breed of Democrats. While the addition of Joe Biden to the Obama ticket might reassure some of those more traditional Democrats, it is plausible to assume that some if not most will vote for the more moderate McCain on election day.
